Research
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Our research is dedicated to quantifying how different human activities are affecting climate and air quality, how those environmental changes in turn jeopardize human wellbeing, and the relative priority of solutions. The work is wide-ranging, but falls into a few main categories:
Net-Zero Emissions Energy Systems
Much of the lab’s efforts are focused on analyzing energy systems and the opportunities and challenges to achieving net-zero GHG emissions. We pioneered the concept of “committed emissions,” and use facility-level datasets to map transition pathways and quantify transition risks. A major review we published in 2018 was among the first to quantify and explain the “difficult-to-abate” sources of energy emissions, and ongoing work is aimed at identifying and prioritizing related solutions.
Recent energy-related publications:
- Jiang, Hou, Ling Yao, Jun Qin, Yongqing Bai, Martin Brandt, Xu Lian, Steven Davis, Ning Lu, Wenli Zhao, Tang Liu, and Chenghu Zhou. “Globally Interconnected Solar-Wind System Addresses Future Electricity Demands”, Nature Communications, 16 (May 15, 2025): 4523. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59879-9.
- Cheng, Jing, Dan Tong, Hongyan Zhao, Ruochong Xu, Yue Qin, Qiang Zhang, Karan Bhuwalka, Ken Caldeira, and Steven Davis. “Trade Risks to Energy Security in Net-Zero Emissions Energy Scenarios”, Nature Climate Change, April 9, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02305-1.
- Seibel, Shane, Richard Luarkie, Daniel Cardenas, Cody Mayer, Ramon Sanchez, Matt Dannenberg, Bazile Panek, Albert Bond, Zane Gordon, Demi Morishige, Kourtney Hadrick, Graham Stahnk, Robert Fofrich, Steven Davis, Richard Tallman, Brooke Bowser, and Morgan Bazilian. “A Path to US Tribal Energy Sovereignty”, Science, 387 (January 17, 2025): 372. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adt7820.
- Ruggles, Tyler, Edgar Virgüez, Natasha Reich, Jacqueline Dowling, Hannah Bloomfield, Enrico Antonini, Steven Davis, Nathan Lewis, and Ken Caldeira. “Planning Reliable Wind-and Solar-Based Electricity Systems”, Advances in Applied Energy, 15 (September 1, 2024): 100185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100185.
- Ruggles, Tyler, Edgar Virgüez, Natasha Reich, Jacqueline Dowling, Hannah Bloomfield, Enrico Antonini, Steven Davis, Nate Lewis, and Ken Caldeira. “Planning Reliable Wind-and Solar-Based Electricity Systems”, Advances in Applied Energy, 15 (September 1, 2024): 100185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100185.
News coverage of energy-related work:
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For most countries, there’s a clear smart move to achieve energy security and reduce trade risks
Looking at the trade-off between reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and increasing dependence on minerals for clean energy, decarbonization was the big win -
A Net-Zero World Will Have Fewer Trade Wars
That’s according to new research published today analyzing flows of minerals and metals vs. fossil fuels.
Food and Water Systems
In recent years, a major focus of the lab has been to quantify the country- and product-specific sources and drivers of land-use GHG emissions (i.e. non-energy emissions from both land management and land-use change), and to evaluate both specific and systemic opportunities for reducing these emissions. Relatedly, we also work on the relationship of food and energy systems and global and regional water resources.
Recent food- or water-related publications:
- Davis, Steven, Kathleen Alexander, Juan Moreno-Cruz, Chaopeng Hong, Matthew Shaner, Ken Caldeira, and Ian McKay. “Food Without Agriculture”, Nature Sustainability, 7 (November 6, 2023): 90-95.
- Hegwood, Margaret, Matthew Burgess, Erin Costigliolo, Pete Smith, Bojana Bajzelj, Harry Saunders, and Steven Davis. “Rebound Effects Could Offset More Than Half of Avoided Food Loss and Waste”, Nature Food, 4 (July 20, 2023): 585-95.
- Qin, Yue, Chaopeng Hong, Hongyan Zhao, Stefan Siebert, John Abatzoglou, Laurie Huning, Lindsey Sloat, Sohyun Park, Shiyu Li, Darla Munroe, Tong Zhu, Steven Davis, and Nathaniel Mueller. “Snowmelt Risk Telecouplings for Irrigated Agriculture”, Nature Climate Change, 12 (October 31, 2022): 1007-15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01509-z.
- Hong, Chaopeng, Hongyan Zhao, Yue Qin, Jennifer Burney, Julia Pongratz, Kerstin Hartung, Yu Liu, Frances Moore, Robert Jackson, Qiang Zhang, and Steven Davis. “ Land-Use Emissions Embodied in Trade”, Science, 376, no. 6593 (May 5, 2022): 597-603. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj1572.
- DeAngelo, Julianne, Benjamin Saenz, Isabella Arzeno-Soltero, Christina Frieder, Matthew Long, Joseph Hamman, Kristen Davis, and Steven Davis. “Economic and Biophysical Limits to Seaweed Farming for Climate Change Mitigation”, Nature Plants, March 12, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-022-01305-9.
News coverage of food- and water-related work:
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Searching for the Next Hot Cooking Oil? It Could Be From Algae
An oil made by fermenting microalgae is touted for health and sustainability—but will people bite? -
The Foods the World Will Lose to Climate Change
Droughts, heat, and extreme weather are pushing crops to their limits. The race is on to innovate faster than the Earth warms.
Impacts and risks of environmental change to human systems
Some of our projects are aimed at quantifying and projecting the impacts of environmental change on human activities. Such impacts are vital context in assessing mitigation options: the costs of inaction.
Recent impacts-related publications:
- Wongel, A., Freese, L., Virgüez, E., Davis, S., & Caldeira, K. (2025). Economic development, air conditioning and adaptation to warming. Environmental Research Letters, 20(12), 124045. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae1f2a
- Zhang, Q., Wang, Y., Xiao, Q., Geng, G., Davis, S., Liu, X., Yang, J., Liu, J., Huang, W., He, C., Luo, B., Martin, R., Brauer, M., Randerson, J., & He, K. (2025). Long-range PM2.5 pollution and health impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09482-1
- Brown, P., Hanley, H., Mahesh, A., Reed, C. ., Strenfel, S., Davis, S., Kochanski, A., & Clements, C. (2023). Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California. Nature, 621, 760-766.
- Cheng, J., Tong, D., Liu, Y., Geng, G., Davis, S., He, K., & Zhang, Q. (2023). A synergistic approach to air pollution control and carbon neutrality in China can avoid millions of premature deaths annually by 2060. One Earth, 6(8), 978-989. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.07.007
- Sanders, B., Schubert, J., Kahl, D., Mach, K., Brady, D., AghaKouchak, A., Forman, F., Matthew, R., Ulibarri, N., & Davis, S. (2022). Large and inequitable flood risks in Los Angeles. Nature Sustainability, 6, 47-57.
News coverage of impacts-related work:
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Funding cuts could put research into emerging threats to lung health at risk
Wildfire smoke, spore-spread fungal diseases and microplastic are all on the rise, even as the US government slashes support for respiratory research and policy. -
Canada's 2023 wildfires contributed to 87,000 early deaths worldwide, study estimates
The health impacts from Canada's worst wildfire stretched into Europe, Asia and Africa, a new study reveals.
Environmental impacts of international trade
International and intraregional trade can have a profound effect on the distribution of environmental impacts and resource use. Quantifying those spatial dislocations is thus a perennial and cross-cutting topic of research by our lab.
Recent trade-related publications:
- Davis, S., Dumit, A., Li, M., Maldonado, Y., Steffen, M., Stevenson, M., Boldyreva, T., & Suh, S. (2025). The importance of multiregional accounting for corporate carbon emissions. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67759-5
- Cheng, J., Tong, D., Zhao, H., Xu, R., Qin, Y., Zhang, Q., Bhuwalka, K., Caldeira, K., & Davis, S. (2025). Trade risks to energy security in net-zero emissions energy scenarios. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02305-1
- Qin, Y., Hong, C., Zhao, H., Siebert, S., Abatzoglou, J., Huning, L., Sloat, L., Park, S., Li, S., Munroe, D., Zhu, T., Davis, S., & Mueller, N. (2022). Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture. Nature Climate Change, 12, 1007-1015. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01509-z
- Hong, C., Zhao, H., Qin, Y., Burney, J., Pongratz, J., Hartung, K., Liu, Y., Moore, F., Jackson, R., Zhang, Q., & Davis, S. (2022). Land-use emissions embodied in trade. Science, 376(6593), 597-603. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj1572
- Guan, D., Wang, D., Hallegatte, S., Davis, S., Huo, J., Li, S., Bai, Y., Lei, T., Xue, Q., Coffman, D., Cheng, D., Chen, P., Liang, X., Xu, B., Lu, X., Wang, S., Hubacek, K., & Gong, P. (2020). Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures. Nature Human Behaviour, 4, 577-587. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
News coverage of trade-related work:
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Another Way Companies Majorly Undercount Their Emissions
The most popular scope 3 models assume an entirely American supply chain. That doesn’t square with reality. -
For most countries, there’s a clear smart move to achieve energy security and reduce trade risks
Looking at the trade-off between reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and increasing dependence on minerals for clean energy, decarbonization was the big win -
A Net-Zero World Will Have Fewer Trade Wars
That’s according to new research published today analyzing flows of minerals and metals vs. fossil fuels.