Research
Our research is dedicated to quantifying how different human activities are affecting climate and air quality, how those environmental changes in turn jeopardize human wellbeing, and the relative priority of solutions. The work is wide-ranging, but falls into a few main categories:
Net-Zero Emissions Energy Systems
Much of the lab’s efforts are focused on analyzing energy systems and the opportunities and challenges to achieving net-zero GHG emissions. We pioneered the concept of “committed emissions,” and use facility-level datasets to map transition pathways and quantify transition risks. A major review we published in 2018 was among the first to quantify and explain the “difficult-to-abate” sources of energy emissions, and ongoing work is aimed at identifying and prioritizing related solutions.
Recent energy-related publications:
- Ruggles, Tyler, Edgar Virgüez, Natasha Reich, Jacqueline Dowling, Hannah Bloomfield, Enrico Antonini, Steven Davis, Nate Lewis, and Ken Caldeira. “Planning Reliable Wind-and Solar-Based Electricity Systems”, Advances in Applied Energy, 15 (September 1, 2024): 100185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100185.
- Dowling, Jacqueline, Tyler Ruggles, Edgar Virgüez, Natasha Reich, Zachary Ifkovits, Steven Davis, Anna Li, Kathleen Kennedy, Katherine Rinaldi, Lei Duan, Ken Caldeira, and Nathan Lewis. “Opportunities and Constraints of Hydrogen Energy Storage Systems”, Environmental Research: Energy, 1, no. 3 (June 17, 2024). https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ad58e5.
- Rohith, Mittakola, Philippe Ciais, Jochen Schubert, David Makowski, Chuanlong Zhou, Hassan Bazzi, Taochun Sun, Zhu Liu, and Steven Davis. “Drivers of Natural Gas Use in U.S. Residential Buildings”, Science Advances, 10, no. 14 (April 3, 2024). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh5543.
- Cheng, Jing, Dan Tong, Yang Liu, Guannan Geng, Steven Davis, Kebin He, and Qiang Zhang. “A Synergistic Approach to Air Pollution Control and Carbon Neutrality in China Can Avoid Millions of Premature Deaths Annually by 2060”, One Earth, 6, no. 8 (August 18, 2023): 978-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.07.007.
- Wang, Seaver, Zeke Hausfather, Steven Davis, Juzel Lloyd, Erik Olson, Lauren Liebermann, Guido Núñez-Mujica, and Jameson McBride. “Materials for Electricity in Mitigation Scenarios”, Joule, 7, no. 2 (February 15, 2023): 309-32.
News coverage of energy-related work:
Food and Water Systems
In recent years, a major focus of the lab has been to quantify the country- and product-specific sources and drivers of land-use GHG emissions (i.e. non-energy emissions from both land management and land-use change), and to evaluate both specific and systemic opportunities for reducing these emissions. Relatedly, we also work on the relationship of food and energy systems and global and regional water resources.
Recent food- or water-related publications:
- Davis, Steven, Kathleen Alexander, Juan Moreno-Cruz, Chaopeng Hong, Matthew Shaner, Ken Caldeira, and Ian McKay. “Food Without Agriculture”, Nature Sustainability, 7 (November 6, 2023): 90-95.
- Hegwood, Margaret, Matthew Burgess, Erin Costigliolo, Pete Smith, Bojana Bajzelj, Harry Saunders, and Steven Davis. “Rebound Effects Could Offset More Than Half of Avoided Food Loss and Waste”, Nature Food, 4 (July 20, 2023): 585-95.
- Qin, Yue, Chaopeng Hong, Hongyan Zhao, Stefan Siebert, John Abatzoglou, Laurie Huning, Lindsey Sloat, Sohyun Park, Shiyu Li, Darla Munroe, Tong Zhu, Steven Davis, and Nathaniel Mueller. “Snowmelt Risk Telecouplings for Irrigated Agriculture”, Nature Climate Change, 12 (October 31, 2022): 1007-15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01509-z.
- Hong, Chaopeng, Hongyan Zhao, Yue Qin, Jennifer Burney, Julia Pongratz, Kerstin Hartung, Yu Liu, Frances Moore, Robert Jackson, Qiang Zhang, and Steven Davis. “ Land-Use Emissions Embodied in Trade”, Science, 376, no. 6593 (May 5, 2022): 597-603. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj1572.
- DeAngelo, Julianne, Benjamin Saenz, Isabella Arzeno-Soltero, Christina Frieder, Matthew Long, Joseph Hamman, Kristen Davis, and Steven Davis. “Economic and Biophysical Limits to Seaweed Farming for Climate Change Mitigation”, Nature Plants. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-022-01305-9.
News coverage of food- and water-related work:
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Searching for the Next Hot Cooking Oil? It Could Be From Algae
An oil made by fermenting microalgae is touted for health and sustainability—but will people bite? -
The Foods the World Will Lose to Climate Change
Droughts, heat, and extreme weather are pushing crops to their limits. The race is on to innovate faster than the Earth warms.
Impacts and risks of environmental change to human systems
Some of our projects are aimed at quantifying and projecting the impacts of environmental change on human activities. Such impacts are vital context in assessing mitigation options: the costs of inaction.
Recent impacts-related publications:
- Brown, P., Hanley, H., Mahesh, A., Reed, C. ., Strenfel, S., Davis, S., Kochanski, A., & Clements, C. (2023). Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California. Nature, 621, 760-766.
- Cheng, J., Tong, D., Liu, Y., Geng, G., Davis, S., He, K., & Zhang, Q. (2023). A synergistic approach to air pollution control and carbon neutrality in China can avoid millions of premature deaths annually by 2060. One Earth, 6(8), 978-989. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.07.007
- Sanders, B., Schubert, J., Kahl, D., Mach, K., Brady, D., AghaKouchak, A., Forman, F., Matthew, R., Ulibarri, N., & Davis, S. (2022). Large and inequitable flood risks in Los Angeles. Nature Sustainability, 6, 47-57.
- Zhu, S., MacKinnon, M., Carlos-Carlos, A., Davis, S., & Samuelsen, S. (2022). Decarbonization will lead to more equitable air quality in California. Nature Communications, 13, 5738. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33295-9
- Tong, D., Geng, G., Zhang, Q., Cheng, J., Qin, X., Hong, C., He, K., & Davis, S. (2021). Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation depend on strategic power plant retirements and pollution controls. Nature Climate Change, 11, 1077-1083. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01216-1
News coverage of impacts-related work:
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Northern forests released a record amount of carbon dioxide in 2021
Heatwaves and droughts in Russia and Canada resulted in a big jump in carbon emissions from boreal forests in 2021, on the back of a rising trend since 2000
Environmental impacts of international trade
International and intraregional trade can have a profound affect on the distribution of environmental impacts and resource use. Quantifying those spatial dislocations is thus a perennial and cross-cutting topic of research by our lab.
Recent trade-related publications:
- Qin, Y., Hong, C., Zhao, H., Siebert, S., Abatzoglou, J., Huning, L., Sloat, L., Park, S., Li, S., Munroe, D., Zhu, T., Davis, S., & Mueller, N. (2022). Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture. Nature Climate Change, 12, 1007-1015. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01509-z
- Hong, C., Zhao, H., Qin, Y., Burney, J., Pongratz, J., Hartung, K., Liu, Y., Moore, F., Jackson, R., Zhang, Q., & Davis, S. (2022). Land-use emissions embodied in trade. Science, 376(6593), 597-603. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj1572
- Guan, D., Wang, D., Hallegatte, S., Davis, S., Huo, J., Li, S., Bai, Y., Lei, T., Xue, Q., Coffman, D., Cheng, D., Chen, P., Liang, X., Xu, B., Lu, X., Wang, S., Hubacek, K., & Gong, P. (2020). Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures. Nature Human Behaviour, 4, 577-587. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
- Xie, W., Xiong, W., Pan, J., Ali, T., Cui, Q., Guan, D., Meng, J., Mueller, N., Lin, E., & Davis, S. (2018). Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. Nature Plants, 4, 964-973. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-018-0263-1
- Meng, J., Mi, Z., Guan, D., Li, J., Tao, S., Li, Y., Feng, K., Liu, J., Liu, Z., Wang, X., Zhang, Q., & Davis, S. (2018). The rise of South–South trade and its effect on global CO2 emissions. Nature Communications, 9, 1871. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04337-y
